Title: Environmental risk and burden inequality intensified by changes in cultivated land patterns
Abstract: This study quantifies environmental risks and inequalities from cultivated land changes in China using a two-way fixed-effects model. Rapid economic growth has intensified environmental burdens over three decades, exacerbating regional disparities. We integrate planetary boundaries (nitrogen, phosphorus, GHG emissions, bluewater) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2019–2030. The "sustainable development" pathway (SSP1) optimally reduces risks: nitrogen (-61.14 %), GHG emissions (-31.72 %), and bluewater use (-62.87 %). Phosphorus emissions decrease by 104.07 %, eliminating boundary exceedance and achieving subboundary safety. SSP1 also lowers environmental inequality (Gini indices: N = 0.18, P = 0.19, GHG=0.27, bluewater=0.27). This framework offers actionable insights for China and Global South nations, demonstrating how sustainable land-use pathways simultaneously mitigate environmental risks and promote equity.
Keywords: Planetary boundary Environmental risks Environmental burden inequality Sustainable utilization of cultivated land
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108604
